From U.S. to Spain, why every round-of-32 team wil… | beritakitanih

From U.S. to Spain, why every round-of-32 team wil…

Bill ConnellyJun 23, 2026, 11:37 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Multiple AuthorsFIFA has always had a cheat code. It knows the more soccer it gives us, the more we’ll love it — and the more it can then get away with. Soccer is an endless resource of entertainment, and sure enough, you could make the case that in the early going, the biggest, priciest World Cup has been the best one yet.Whatever you like, this one has had it in abundance.You like it when the stars shine? Well, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland couldn’t be shining any brighter.You like it when new players come out of the blue to become part of World Cup lore? Say hello to Cape Verde’s Vozinha (a star versus Spain) and Curacao’s Eloy Room (who tied a World Cup record versus Ecuador).You like it when the favorites look like world-beaters for solid stretches of time? You must have really enjoyed those early games from France, England, Germany and (especially) Argentina.You like it when the supposed minnows take points off the heavyweights? Cape Verde’s draw with Spain and Congo DR’s draw with Portugal must have sent shivers down your spine.- World Cup match schedule: All fixtures, results, features- World Cup 2026: How teams can advance to the knockout rounds- Breaking down World Cup’s first 100 goals: How and when were they scored?Having more teams means having more stories to follow and more players to get to know. It also means more teams in the knockout rounds, so let’s stop wasting time.An incredible 32 teams will take part in the World Cup knockout rounds, which will begin Sunday in Los Angeles. Let’s talk about why every single one of them could win this thing (and why they probably won’t).(Note: As the group stage continues to play out, we’ll fill this list with either teams that have clinched advancement to the knockout rounds or teams with at least four points in the group stage, as it’s almost mathematically certain that they also will advance. All round-of-32 matchups are projected based on current standings: We will update this page with those likely matchups too as the bracket takes shape. Also, Opta odds will be updated as more teams qualify.)Title odds, per Opta: 15.4%Projected R32 opponent: Uruguay, July 3Why they will win it all: The team is once again perfect for Leo Messi. And he’s somehow getting … better? In his first 19 World Cup matches, Messi scored six goals, a total most players in the world would dream of. In his past nine matches, all played after his 35th birthday, he has scored 12.The GOAT stands alone.MESSI BECOMES THE ALL-TIME LEADING GOALSCORER IN MEN’S FIFA WORLD CUP HISTORY pic.twitter.com/aWY9thIuUG— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 22, 2026 Argentina won the 2022 World Cup thanks in part to a group of younger players who did all the running so that Messi only had to do the scoring. And with Enzo Fernández, Lisandro Martínez & Co. once again sweeping up any messes that come their way, it’s working again so far in the U.S. this summer.Argentina have yet to allow a goal — or a single shot attempt worth even 0.15 xG — and Messi leads the competition in goals (five) and shots on goal (eight) and leads his team in progressive passes, progressive carries, fouls won and ground duels won. The formula is working again, and they haven’t even gotten anything out of Julián Álvarez yet.play0:46Fans in Buenos Aires celebrate as Messi breaks the men’s all-time goalscorer recordWhy they won’t: Good teams could pen them in. For as much incredible work as Fernandez in particular is doing, Argentina have still played pretty passive defense and have allowed Algeria and Austria to work the ball into semi-dangerous areas. They’ve also had no aerial presence, winning just 40% of their aerial duels (one of the worst percentages in the competition).Most of the tournament’s other favorites will have a size advantage and will be able to play a strong possession game. Will the “absorb pressure, then counter with Messi” thing work well enough to beat a couple of those favorites?BRAZIL (1-1-0, W-D-L)Title odds, per Opta: 4.7%Projected R32 opponent: Japan, June 29Why they will win it all: They still have the attacking talent. Even with the loss of Raphinha to a hamstring injury, they still have Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior (two goals and one assist thus far), they still have forwards Matheus Cunha and Igor Thiago, and they still have players such as Gabriel Martinelli, Luiz Henrique, Rayan and Endrick, who have yet to get fully involved. (They also have Neymar, who is 34 years old and hurt and probably shouldn’t be there but might still have one last burst of World Cup magic in him.)Vinícius salvaged the Morocco match with a single moment of brilliance, and Carlo Ancelotti might be the best manager in the world when it comes to unlocking those moments.play1:23Will Brazil top Group C after victory vs. Haiti?Why they won’t: You can’t field 10 forwards. You need fullbacks, for one thing, and somehow Ancelotti’s best options there remain Flamengo’s 34-year-old Danilo and Zenit St. Petersburg’s 32-year-old Douglas Santos. And for the strength that Vinícius & Co. possess up top, Raphinha was the closest thing to a strong pressing presence: A lack of full-team defense is putting strain on a midfield that is still asking 34-year-old Casemiro to clean up messes.They’re strong at center back with Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães, but while you only have so much control over the balance of your national team player pool, Brazil’s has perhaps never been this unbalanced.Title odds, per Opta: 0.7%Projected R32 opponent: Belgium, July 3Why they will win it all: They know who they are. There can be great power in identity, and Canada’s Jesse Marsch is keeping the Red Bull spirit alive.His team plays fast. The Canadians are averaging the second-most counterattack attempts in the competition (despite having had basically all of the ball against Qatar) and the most fast high-win sequences (those starting in the attacking third and lasting fewer than 13 seconds with fewer than six passes). They’ve scored three goals from high turnovers in two matches, and they’ve allowed the fewest progressive passes and progressive carries per game (though playing against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar probably helped keep those numbers low).They’re creating quick-strike opportunities. Jonathan David and Cyle Larin are converting chances. And Canada could get at least two knockout matches in Vancouver, British Columbia.play0:32Canada fans at Niagara Falls celebrate 1st goal vs. QatarWhy they won’t: Red Bull is yesterday’s news. At the club level, the full-throttle style Marsch proselytized at RB Leipzig and Leeds United has grown a little outdated, with the best clubs playing a more nuanced style capable of withstanding pressure and exploiting gaps. If the Canadians win Group B, they’ll be well-positioned to make a potential quarterfinal run before running into one of the big dogs (Argentina, perhaps?), but they might be able to threaten those big dogs.Title odds, per Opta: 0.6%Projected R32 opponent: Czechia, July 1Why they will win it all: Mo and the break-evens. For such a soccer-obsessed country — seven AFCON titles, with two clubs (Al Ahly and Zamalek) responsible for 17 CAF Champions League titles — Egypt’s World Cup résumé was almost blank until this year: seven total matches, two draws, five losses. They had bowed out quietly in 2018 and failed to qualify in 2022.But after matches against Belgium and New Zealand, they have four points and delightfully neutral stats: They’ve attempted slightly more (and slightly better) shots than their opponents, they’ve counterattacked with verve and they’ve attempted a lot of duels (and won more than 50% of them). They’re breaking even. And when you’re breaking even overall but have the only Mohamed Salah on the pitch, you win. Salah has a goal and two assists in 161 minutes, and Egypt are almost certainly cruising into the knockout rounds for the first time.play1:05Salah: We made Egypt happy and proud with first winWhy they won’t: Age and sprinting. Egypt simply outran New Zealand on Sunday, and they have indeed been one of the more successfully direct teams in the tournament. But direct play might not work against the better teams in the field. And relying on sprints and speed when your team is one of the oldest at the World Cup — players 29 or older have accounted for 55% of their minutes, and the linchpin is the 34-year-old Salah — doesn’t seem like a wonderful combination.Title odds, per Opta: 15.2%Projected R32 opponent: Sweden, June 30Why they will win it all: This tournament brings out the best in Kylian Mbappé. It’s been an odd few years for Mbappe at the club level. His Paris Saint-Germain teams usually disappointed in the Champions League, and when he left for reigning champion Real Madrid, they began to disappoint and PSG won back-to-back Champions League titles. It’s all been enough to consider renaming the Ewing Theory. But at the international level, where direct tactics work a little better and his abject refusal to even pretend to contribute defensively isn’t as costly, both Mbappe and France continue to shine.After a dud of a first half against Senegal, France have outscored opponents 6-1 in their past 1.5 halves, with Mbappe scoring four goals and Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé combining for a goal and four assists. They remain happy to allow lesser opponents possession of the ball, then explode into transition spaces.As with Argentina, we know this formula works, and since France probably has the most raw talent in the tournament, we have no reason to think it will stop working.play1:27Hislop: France are yet to be tested at the World CupWhy they won’t: Passive, passive defense. It’s one thing to allow a possession-hungry team like Spain or England to have lots of the ball. But after matches against Senegal and Iraq, France rank 18th in progressive passes allowed, 30th in passes allowed per defensive action and 32nd in progressive carries allowed. They’re making far fewer defensive interventions than they did in the 2018 or 2022 finals runs (and Dayot Upamecano is having to make a huge percentage of them), and they’re both committing and drawing fewer fouls.It’s less of a concern than a point of interest right now, but it’s definitely something to watch.Title odds, per Opta: 6.6%Projected R32 opponent: Scotland, June 29Why they will win it all: Almost all the right guys are hot. Kai Havertz missed much of the season with injury, but he has produced eight goals and four assists in his past 14 matches for club and country. Joshua Kimmich is serving up danger on set pieces. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala could be hotter, sure, but they’ve both created plenty of danger in the first two matches. And when in doubt, bring on super sub Deniz Undav (three goals and two assists in 56 minutes).WOULD YOU BELIEVE IT? GERMANY TAKES THE LEAD IN STOPPAGE TIME! pic.twitter.com/hVrMbRwxFx— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 20, 2026 (Was it poor defensive positioning? Yes, but what a pass and what a touch to control it.)Midfielders Felix Nmecha and Aleksandar Pavlovic are providing the perfect combination of industry and box-crashing attack. Emerging left back Nathaniel Brown is running himself ragged, making defensive interventions, firing in accurate crosses and even scoring against Curacao. You can see why Julian Nagelsmann put together the lineup he did.Why they won’t: Losses of control. From the third minute to the 55th minute against the U.S. in a pre-World Cup friendly, Germany were outscored 1-0 with an xG (expected goals) differential of minus-0.35. From the 21st to the 67th minute against Ivory Coast on Saturday, they were again outscored 1-0 with an xG differential of minus-0.59.play0:57Klinsmann: Germany ‘really struggled’ despite late win vs. Ivory CoastThis isn’t domination, but these were long periods of ineffectiveness against good-not-great teams, and it’s something they can’t afford against the best competition. Without defender Nico Schlotterbeck — who was injured against Ivory Coast and might well be done for the tournament — this vulnerability might increase.Title odds, per Opta: 1.6%Projected R32 opponent: Brazil, June 29Why they will win it all: A sturdy base. Japan has played one match against an excellent possession team (Netherlands) and one match against a disaster (Tunisia). They’ve committed just six total high turnovers. They’ve averaged 7.9 passes per possession (eighth in the competition), and they’re averaging the fewest total possessions per match (63.5).Even without key injured players such as Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, Monaco’s Takumi Minamino and Liverpool’s Wataru Endo, they have been playing with complete control, giving opponents almost no good transition opportunities and allowing no high-quality shots. They’re looking as good as I expected them to with that star trio. And they’re getting scoring punch from Ayase Ueda (two goals, one assist) and Daichi Kamada (two goals).play1:03Hajime Moriyasu: Our 4-0 victory vs. Tunisia was memorableWhy they won’t: Man, that’s a lot of firepower to lose. Ueda enjoyed a breakout season with Feyenoord, and Japan still have veterans such as Celtic’s Daizen Maeda and Reims’ Keito Nakamura to go with the excellent midfield and defense. But if they advance deep into this tournament, the absence of their most high-level attacking talent really might begin to show.Title odds, per Opta: 1.3%Projected R32 opponent: Cape Verde, July 1Why they will win it all: Home magic. With Thursday’s win over South Korea, Mexico clinched first in Group A, meaning their first two knockout-round matches would both be at the legendary Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. And if things go according to plan in Group L, that second match would be against England, likely the best team in their entire quarter of the draw, in the country’s biggest World Cup match in ages.Azteca was maybe their best weapon against South Africa in the opener, and while Mexico’s play itself hasn’t been amazing — from an xG (and “goalkeeper errors”) perspective, they were fortunate to beat South Korea — they’ve defended well, and the early points have given them a chance to play their way into form.play1:02How Mexicans celebrated being the first team to progress to the World Cup knockout stageWhy they won’t: An underwhelming attack. Mexico have indeed neutralized opponents well, allowing no goals and shots worth a total of just 0.98 xG through two matches. But they also created few strong chances against an overwhelmed, nine-man South Africa in the first match and created far less against South Korea.In two matches, they’ve attempted two shots worth 0.2 xG or more. That doesn’t say good things about their scoring capabilities when the level of competition increases.Title odds, per Opta: 1.7%Projected R32 opponent: Netherlands, June 30Why they will win it all: They play like a team that can. Morocco made the 2022 World Cup semis with what amounted to an enhanced defend-and-counter approach: They played without the ball but still managed to create shot quality advantages, even against Portugal in the knockout rounds. About 3½ years later, they’re still providing serious threats on the counter, but they also are playing with the ball more. They had 49% possession in their opening draw with Brazil; and despite leading almost the entire match, they were at 59% against Scotland.It’s another card they can play, and they have the talent to pull it off. And if they’re playing better and more sophisticated ball than when they made the semis, who’s to say they can’t win another match or two this time?play0:47Onuoha doubts Morocco can repeat World Cup semifinal runWhy they won’t: Do they have the bench? Through the first 60 minutes of each match thus far, Morocco have generated a plus-0.8 xG differential; they were superior in this regard against both Brazil and Scotland. But over the final 30 minutes, as substitutions began to play a role, they had to hold on for dear life, giving up better opportunities than they created both times. That’s a warning sign considering the number of knockout matches you’ll have to win to take the title.Title odds, per Opta: 4.3%Projected R32 opponent: Morocco, June 30Why they will win it all: Did you even watch the Sweden match? It was one of the most resounding statements of the tournament thus far. Granted, Sweden is difficult to figure out: They underachieved dramatically in qualification and snuck in through the back door of the playoffs thanks to previous Nations League success; then they looked formidable in their first World Cup match. Yet Sweden got crushed 5-1 by a Dutch team that had every answer. Cody Gakpo and new starter Brian Brobbey combined for four goals and an assist. Virgil van Dijk and the back line erased Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. And after establishing an early lead, the Dutch counterattacked with vigor.If you can play possession ball or counter, have major-club talent at every level of the pitch and don’t actually ever lose World Cup matches, what exactly are you lacking?play1:23Hislop praises ‘complete’ Netherlands team after ‘thumping’ SwedenWhy they won’t: It’s hard to trust Ronald Koeman. The Dutch manager has always had a more regressive, conservative streak, and it might have cost his team a couple of points against Japan when he made defensive substitutions, his team gave up control of the pitch and it then conceded a late tying goal. England’s aggression against Croatia was a reminder that staying on the front foot might be the way to go when you have superior personnel, but Koeman isn’t really the guy to do that.Title odds, per Opta: 5.1%Projected R32 opponent: Ivory Coast, June 30Why they will win it all: The big lad. Erling Haaland had to wait until he was 25 to play in a World Cup, though he is definitely making up for lost time. He’s averaging basically one goal per half, and Norway have outscored Iraq and Senegal by a combined 7-3 to comfortably advance to the knockout rounds with a match to go. He created one of those goals out of whole cloth, too:Erling Haaland pounced on the mistake to make it 2-1 for Norway pic.twitter.com/lEL7pOOVng— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 16, 2026 This is a golden generation of sorts for Norway, with not only Manchester City’s Haaland (25) in the team, but also Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard (27), Borussia Dortmund’s Julian Ryerson (28), Brentford’s Kristoffer Ajer (28), Bologna’s Torbjorn Heggem (27) and Fulham’s Sander Berge (28). All of them are reaching their athletic primes at the same time and playing a huge role in this World Cup, but they’ll only really go as far as Haaland takes them.Why they won’t: Defensive fragility. Even with players like Ajer and Heggem, the Norway defense has been the weak point for a while, and without having played a contender yet, Norway rank 22nd in xG allowed per shot and 35th in shots allowed per possession. They’ve actually allowed more shot attempts than they’ve taken, and they very much struggled to see out the win over Senegal, allowing a number of high-quality shot attempts (and a goal) after going up 3-1.If Haaland’s magic even briefly dries up, Norway could be in trouble.play0:44Robson: Haaland is the world’s most dangerous strikerTitle odds, per Opta: 13.9%Projected R32 opponent: Austria, July 2Why they will win it all: They’re Spain. It probably isn’t hard to explain why the team that won the last Euros and has Lamine Yamal, Pedri and a robust set of veterans can win the World Cup. And in case their shocking 0-0 draw with Cape Verde cast any doubts, they alleviated those concerns by starting Yamal (who barely played against Cape Verde) and blowing out Saudi Arabia 4-0. They can dominate the ball, and they can likely still beat you with the speed of Yamal and Nico Williams.There’s no grave weakness here. They’re still Spain.play2:14Moreno: Spain could have scored eight against Saudi ArabiaWhy they won’t: Do they still have the Euro recipe? We should probably acknowledge that some of the key players from that Euro 2024 run aren’t in the same form. Williams’ presence was enormous in that run, but he has been banged up and relatively ineffective; he has just six goals and five assists in all competitions for club and country in the past year. Meanwhile, Rodri, whose brilliant play resulted in his Ballon d’Or win just weeks after the Euros, is still good, but he hasn’t been the same since tearing an ACL in September 2024.It might be a little easier for them to fall into stolid possession play without a full-strength Williams or get hit on a counter without a full-strength Rodri. And it might only take one poor sequence to fall short in a five-round knockout competition.Title odds, per Opta: 1.5%Projected R32 opponent: South Korea, SundayWhy they will win it all: Trust xG. Five teams have generated an xG differential of plus-2.0 or higher in their first two World Cup matches. Favorites Spain, England and Germany are three, and a Canada team that overwhelmed a nine-man Qatar is the fourth.The fifth? Switzerland. They manhandled Bosnia and Herzegovina far worse than Canada did, and only a run of poor finishing (they attempted shots worth 3.2 xG but scored only once) kept Switzerland from walloping (11-man) Qatar. They’ve generated the fourth-most xG through two matches, and they’ve allowed the third lowest. Weak opponents? Absolutely. But how many other teams have struggled against supposedly weak competition in this tournament?The Swiss have major-club talent at every level. They have a lovely mix of veterans (Granit Xhaka) and youngsters (20-year-old Johan Manzambi) playing well. And they’re creating far better chances than they’re allowing. That’s a pretty good recipe.play1:08Robson: The subs changed the game for SwitzerlandWhy they won’t: Drama. This seemingly goes for just about any nation, but the negative headlines explode every time anything doesn’t go well with this team. Xhaka has called out some of his younger teammates at times. And when they couldn’t knock in a second goal against Qatar, their body language suggested they knew they were going to give up a late equalizer. And then they did.I’m more of a stats guy than a body language guy, but this sport requires both, and it’s hard to trust this team when it comes to the latter.Title odds, per Opta: 4.0%Projected R32 opponent: Algeria, July 2Why they will win it all: Everything’s coming up Poch. After four straight years of injuries to major stars, the Americans are as healthy as they’ve ever been (even acknowledging Christian Pulisic’s calf issues). They’ve benefited from own goals early in two straight matches. Folarin Balogun is finishing well and making things happen, and Alex Freeman has shifted into a completely new gear.Türkiye have collapsed, allowing Mauricio Pochettino to rest stars (and reset yellow cards) for the final group-stage match. Belgium have underwhelmed, giving the U.S. maybe the single easiest potential path to the quarterfinals. Virtually everything that both Pochettino and U.S. fans wanted to happen has happened, and it’s creating some team-of-destiny vibes. The U.S. team has outscored two decent opponents by a combined 6-1, and it sure looks like it will be full strength when the knockout rounds start.You can’t ask for much more than that.play1:19Klinsmann: Doesn’t get much better for USMNT after 2-0 winWhy they won’t: Defensive vulnerabilities. Early leads and outstanding first-half performances have created favorable circumstances, but it’s hard to forget that when the Americans played a run of four straight opponents in the top 15 of the FIFA rankings — Belgium, Portugal, Senegal and Germany — they allowed 11 combined goals. Granted, star defender Chris Richards was hurt during that stretch, but even with Richards, the U.S. suffered a total lapse in concentration and gave up a goal to Paraguay in the first World Cup match.This team is at its best when its forwards and midfielders are swarming and playing aggressively, and that style of play is naturally risky. Combining that with some poor defending on set pieces and restarts is not a recipe for success. If or when this team gets knocked out, we probably know how it will go down.

Diterbitkan : 2026-06-23 21:21:00

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