Why Nuggets should be concerned if Nikola Jokić does not sign contract extension this offseason
Nobody was surprised when Nikola Jokić elected not to sign a contract extension last summer. There was more money to be made by waiting until the 2026 offseason. He still had at least two years left on his contract with the Denver Nuggets at the time, and after a competitive seven-game series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he had little reason to doubt his team’s ability to contend for championships moving forward.But now the 2026 offseason is here. Jokić has a player option for the 2027-28 season, meaning free agency is potentially only a year away. This is the point when most superstars, with Giannis Antetokounmpo as the most notable recent example, either get extended or get traded. Yet according to Marc Stein and Jake Fischer, Jokić is indeed considering bypassing an extension this offseason. “Jokić feels no need to rush the extension, since a very lucrative deal can be just as easily signed next summer as this summer,” they wrote on Saturday.That is technically true. Jokić is eligible for a four-year extension worth around $280 million right now. He could extend next summer as well, or simply decline his player option and sign a new deal that could last up to five years. Were he to become a free agent, he could only sign a four-year contract starting at 35% of the salary cap with 5% annual raises. If the cap grows at the same rate next year that is expected to this year, such a deal would pay him just under $265 million.
At every turn, Jokić has indicated that he plans to stay in Denver. In March, he said in an interview conducted in Serbian that he could not imagine playing for another team and that he “really found peace” in Denver. When asked about his future following his first-round exit from the postseason, he said: “I want to be a Nugget forever.” Notably, though, when asked specifically about extending, he repeated those words rather than confirming. Now, an extension in 2026 no longer appears certain.So what exactly should we take from this? Let’s try to figure that out.How alarmed should the Nuggets be right now?We don’t really know. If this were any other player, it would be DEFCON 1. The Antetokounmpo situation is instructive here. With him going into a contract year, Bucks co-owner Wes Edens directly told ESPN in March that “one of two things will happen: Either he will be extended or he’ll be traded.” He was ultimately traded. Most franchise players who decline extensions with only a year remaining before free agency are. The risk of losing a player that good for nothing is simply too high to justify rolling those dice… most of the time.While Antetokounmpo was never shy about expressing affection for Milwaukee, he made it clear, on several occasions, that winning another championship was a higher priority for him than being a Buck for life. As far back as 2023, he was saying that openly in interviews. Jokić has never given quotes like that. He has never used the media to pressure the Nuggets into making moves. His messaging has been unusually consistent for a player of his caliber. He really has only ever said that he plans to remain in Denver.
But, to be frank, this is the NBA, where what is said publicly can differ pretty significantly from what is said and meant privately. We don’t know what Jokić is signaling behind closed doors. This could mean one of many things. Jokić may really just see no urgency to extend. This is another difference between him and other stars. He almost never gets hurt. Even if he tore his Achilles tomorrow, the Nuggets would happily give him a max extension. He doesn’t have to worry about securing his salary at the earliest possible moment. His playing style is not especially reliant on athleticism and his durability is a major strength. He can afford to be patient.
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If Jokić were thinking about leaving Denver, though, declining an extension is obviously one step he would probably take. Doing so grants him far more control over his future. If he ever wanted to push for a trade, a long-term contract would effectively open bidding up to the entire league. With no assurance that he’d be under control for long, he could swat away undesirable suitors, and though no reigning All-NBA player has moved in free agency since 2019, Jokić, for now, maintains the ability to buck that trend next summer if he wants to. Doing so would be his best chance at competing with his next destination, as his next team wouldn’t have to gut its roster to get him.The answer for now is probably a middle ground between these two extremes. The likeliest explanation here is that Jokić is, for the first time in his career, exerting pressure on the Nuggets to put a championship-caliber roster around him. Why exactly does he need to do that?
Denver’s precarious cap situationAs of right now, the Nuggets are only a hair beneath the projected second apron line with just 10 players under contract. They could save $10 million by waiving the non-guaranteed Jonas Valančiūnas, but that would still leave them with at least five roster spots to fill, including some significant ones. They would have no backup center in that world. Sixth Man of the Year finalist Tim Hardaway Jr. is not yet under contract, nor is two-way find Spencer Jones. Most importantly, key forward Peyton Watson is headed for restricted free agency and expected to get a substantial offer sheet.Let’s say, hypothetically, that the Nuggets were to waive Valančiūnas, re-sign Watson at a starting salary of $25 million, and then sign four veteran’s minimum contracts to fill out their roster. That would give them a team salary around $22 million above the projected second apron line, and remember, the Nuggets are a repeat taxpayer. On top of over $240 million in payroll, they’d have a nine-figure luxury tax bill to contend with. The Nuggets have paid the tax during the Jokić era, but they haven’t exactly spent into the stratosphere that, say, Joe Lacob’s Warriors have. It is therefore difficult to imagine Denver fully running back last year’s roster.That has made some manner of cost-cutting a widespread expectation for the Nuggets this offseason. That cost-cutting could come in a variety of forms. Maybe there’s a big win-now trade that also saves Denver money, and they have reportedly been active in the trade market. Owner Josh Kroenke has said that everyone but Jokić is on the table. But saving money might simply mean finding someone to take on a big contract, like Cameron Johnson or Christian Braun. In that world, the Nuggets would either take back a cheaper, lesser player, dump the contract entirely, or even pay some of their meager remaining draft capital to get out of one of those deals. Notably, the Nuggets traded out of the first round of Tuesday’s NBA Draft, seemingly to save money.
And this is where Jokić comes in. Very few stars are happy when their front offices make their teams worse for the sake of saving money. It should not be forgotten, for instance, that LeBron James left the Miami Heat less than a year after they used the amnesty provision to waive Mike Miller and lower their luxury tax bill. Electing not to extend is the greatest weapon in Jokiċ’s quiver when it comes to demanding a roster he can win with. We do not know what has been said directly. Indirectly, declining an extension says, “It’s up to you to give me a team worth extending with.” If the Nuggets don’t, other teams are certainly prepared to do so. Which takes us to our next point: in the for now unlikely scenario that Jokić were to move, where could he go?Which teams could pursue Jokić? Lakers stand outLet’s get this one out of the way: the Nuggets will not trade Jokić unless he asks them to. Period. The only recent comparisons we can make to Jokić among stars on expiring contracts are LeBron James and Kevin Durant. The two of them combined to reach free agency five times in their primes between 2010 and 2019. Neither of their teams ever seriously considered trading them.Some players, usually only two or three in the league at any given time, are so valuable that merely employing them for one extra year, regardless of the roster they’re playing on, generates more championship equity than anything they could be realistically traded for. Having Jokić gives the Nuggets a non-trivial chance at winning the 2027 championship, and that alone is worth more than any feasible trade package. Even if you’re, say, 80% sure that he’s leaving, you’d rather have a 20% chance that he stays than a mountain of first-round picks.
If Jokić were to ask for a trade, either now or at the deadline, he’d likely have a specific destination in mind. In all likelihood, that’s where he’d go, though again, he is so singularly valuable and reliable that some team might actually be able to talk itself into outbidding his preferred home as a rental. They’d hope to sell him on a future with them, of course, but even if they couldn’t, the right team getting Jokić for one playoff run could swing a championship. The possible rental teams are, well, anyone with significant assets and a desire to win next season. If the Thunder can get below the second apron and therefore create the ability to aggregate salaries, yes, they should have a meeting about it. The Spurs are far more financially flexible, and the same applies to them. The Rockets stand out as the obvious “asset-rich win-now team that isn’t good enough to win a title but could be if they took the Jokić swing,” but others would inevitably emerge.But realistically, were Jokić to move, it would probably come through free agency, and if that’s the case, we’d probably know where he’s headed. It’s time to talk about the Lakers.
The purple and gold just re-signed Austin Reaves to a four-year, $185 million max contract. Their books are still remarkably clean for the summer of 2027. Only four Lakers have guaranteed contracts for the 2027-28 season: Reaves, Luka Dončić, No. 24 overall pick Cameron Carr, and Jarred Vanderbilt, who has a player option he’s certain to pick up. The next few weeks are going to be very, very telling. If they hand out multi-year deals, they kill their potential 2027 cap space. If they have any inkling whatsoever that Jokić is gettable, though, they are prioritizing maintaining an open 2027 balance sheet. This would probably mean operating above the salary cap and bringing last year’s roster back on inflated one-year deals while they buy time ahead of free agency. It’s not clear how much or little they know about Jokić’s future, but we can guess that they have a pretty good informant.Neither Jokić nor Dončić is as effusive publicly as some American stars about their peers, but the two are known to be friends. Dončić has said as much, telling reporters in Serbian that he was excited to potentially spend time off the court with Jokić during All-Star weekend in Los Angeles back in January. Their bromance was one of the stories of All-Star Weekend back in 2024. If you track this sort of thing, you’ll recall that the same was true of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving back in 2019, before they linked up in Brooklyn. Dončić is well-known for his willingness to recruit on behalf of his team. He helped the Lakers secure Marcus Smart last offseason. He shares an agent with Deandre Ayton, whom the Lakers signed last offseason.This is very often how superteams are formed in the NBA. One great player recruits another relentlessly behind the scenes, so they eventually partner up and try to win championships together. If Dončić is trying to do this, he’s surely keeping the Lakers abreast of the situation.
Could other cap space suitors emerge? Absolutely. Golden State’s books are almost entirely blank beyond this season, and while he’s a good deal older than Dončić, almost anyone would love the chance to play with Stephen Curry. The Clippers are a pretty blank slate financially beyond Darius Garland, and they obviously have a history of recruiting big names. The sign-and-trade market would essentially be anyone who could deal with the first-apron hard cap that such a deal would trigger.But, if we’re being realistic about this, it would take something pretty substantial to convince Jokić to consider teams outside of the Nuggets. Would the Clippers even be better than the Nuggets are now? Would he really want to join a team as old as the Warriors? Unless the Spurs or Thunder really force themselves into the conversation through a sign-and-trade, a Dončić partnership is probably the only option appealing enough to convince Jokić to leave the only team he’s ever known. If the Lakers think they can do this, they’re going to try.And that takes us to our final question: What do the Nuggets need to do to convince Jokić to stay?
Is there a win-now trade out there for Denver? Jaylen Brown, perhaps?Look, as we’ve covered, this might all be nothing. Jokić might have already assured the Nuggets that an extension is coming later, or if this is a leverage play, it might be a bluff. If it isn’t, maybe the Nuggets can secure a signature just by ponying up the dough it will take to keep this year’s roster together. All of that is possible and perhaps likely. But we know that the Nuggets are actively exploring the trade market, so what’s out there for them?Stein and others have reported that Aaron Gordon is, to this point, the Nuggets player drawing the most trade interest. Moving him would be gutting. He’s become “Mr. Nugget” since arriving in Denver in 2021. His chemistry with Jokić is legendary. But he’s in his 30s, about to start a lucrative three-year extension, and has struggled to stay on the court over the past two seasons. If the Nuggets could turn him into someone more reliable, they could hope that the similarly athletic Watson grows into a viable replacement. Is that a great plan? No, and Jokić likely wouldn’t be thrilled to lose Gordon. But depending on what he returns, it might be a worthwhile approach.
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The real swing here, though, probably involves a Jamal Murray trade of some sort. Stein reported Saturday that the Nuggets have at least considered internally whether they have the assets to mount a real pursuit of Jaylen Brown, though they have not yet emerged as a bonafide suitor. Let’s run with that idea, since he’s the biggest name that has been in any serious way linked to Denver.The immediate concern, as is so often the case in the modern NBA, is money. Brown makes more than Murray, and the Nuggets are already prohibitively expensive. They cannot be swapped one-for-one because taking on more money than a team sends out triggers a first-apron hard cap, which the Nuggets can’t handle. Therefore, Denver would have to aggregate salaries to make a deal legal. Of course, doing so would mean triggering a second-apron hard cap, which is not tenable until Watson is settled. After all, if the Nuggets establish a hard cap, the whole league would suddenly know exactly how much room Denver has to pay Watson, and could merely offer slightly more to prevent the Nuggets from matching.So realistically, the Nuggets need to shed a lot of money to make this viable. Here’s the simplest way they could do so: swap Murray for Brown, and then send Cam Johnson into Boston’s $27.7 million Anfernee Simons trade exception. That deal saves the Nuggets around $16 million, at least starting them on the path to retaining Watson. Let’s assume for now they can do so. They’d have Jokić and a truly imposing group of wings in Brown, Watson, Gordon and Christian Braun.They’d also have no guards. I mean that almost literally. The only point guard left on their team would be Jalen Pickett on a non-guaranteed minimum salary. The Nuggets would realistically have to turn around and trade Gordon for players who can dribble afterward. At that point, their roster would be almost entirely unrecognizable. We have no idea what the final team would look like. And all of this assumes that Boston even wants Murray for Brown, which is no given. The Nuggets don’t exactly have draft picks they can use to grease the wheels here. The best they can do is add a 2033 first-round swap.All of this is meant to underline a simple point: it is going to be very, very hard for the Nuggets to actually improve next year’s roster. Even keeping the team that just lost to Minnesota in the first round together would create a historic luxury tax bill. The Nuggets will have to be incredibly creative if they’re going to get meaningfully better next season. If that’s the standard Denver needs to reach, well, the sharks are going to start circling here. We’re a long, long way off, but for the first time in his career, it seems as though the door on acquiring Jokić might finally have cracked open.
Diterbitkan : 2026-06-27 23:05:00
sumber : www.cbssports.com
